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Halving

2026-03-09 · ideas · en

Every 4 years, Bitcoin's new issuance is cut in half. The strictest monetary policy in history.

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What is Halving?

Halving is a pre-programmed event in the Bitcoin network where the amount of newly issued Bitcoin is cut in half approximately every 4 years. More precisely, it occurs once every 210,000 blocks, and since each block is generated at roughly 10-minute intervals, this creates approximately a 4-year cycle.

Halving is the most critical element of Bitcoin's monetary policy. It is not decided at a central bank meeting, but rather is an immutable rule automatically executed by code.

The Technical Mechanism of Halving

In the Bitcoin network, miners create new blocks through Proof of Work. When a miner successfully creates a block, they receive newly issued Bitcoin as a block reward. Halving is the event where this block reward is cut in half.

Halving Schedule

Eventually, around 2140, when the block reward reaches 0, all 21 million Bitcoin will have been issued. From that point on, miners' income will consist only of transaction fees.

Stock-to-Flow Ratio

A useful concept for understanding the economic significance of halving is the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) ratio.

• Stock: The total quantity that currently exists
• Flow: The amount added annually
• S2F Ratio: Stock ÷ Flow = The number of years it would take to replace the existing stock at the current production rate

The higher the S2F, the scarcer the asset, and the smaller the impact of new supply on existing stock (dilution effect).

S2F Comparison of Major Assets

• Gold: S2F approximately 60 (the total gold ever mined divided by annual mining production is about 60 years)
• Silver: S2F approximately 22
• Bitcoin (after 2024 halving): S2F approximately 120

After the fourth halving in 2024, Bitcoin's S2F has reached approximately twice that of gold. Bitcoin has become the asset with the highest S2F in human history. And this ratio will continue to increase with each subsequent halving.

Comparison with Gold Mining

Understanding Bitcoin's halving is useful when compared with gold mining.

Gold's Supply Structure:

• Annual gold production varies based on market price, mining technology, and geological discoveries
• When gold prices rise, mining incentives increase, causing supply to rise (partial self-regulation)
• However, it is impossible to predict future supply with certainty
• Historically, about 1.5-2% annual supply growth

Bitcoin's Supply Structure:

• The halving schedule is hardcoded, making future supply perfectly predictable
• Even if prices rise, total supply does not change (difficulty adjustment ensures this)
• After 2024, annual supply growth is approximately 0.8%, less than half that of gold

This difference is fundamental. Gold's supply is predictable but not certain. Bitcoin's supply is mathematically determined.

Contrast with Fiat Currency

The meaning of halving becomes clearest when contrasted with fiat currency supply structures.

Fiat Currency:

• Central banks can issue unlimited amounts as needed
• Supply schedule is not predetermined
• Supply is determined by political judgment
• Historically, all fiat currencies have declined in value long-term

Bitcoin:

• No one can change the supply schedule
• The issuance schedule for the next 100 years is already fixed
• Supply is determined by mathematics and code
• New supply decreases over time

Fiat currency policy is "decided by a few experts in a conference room," while Bitcoin's monetary policy is "written in code that anyone in the world can verify."

Halving and Price: Correlation vs. Causation

Historically, Bitcoin's price has shown substantial appreciation following each halving:

• 1st Halving (2012): Around $12 at halving → Reached over $1,000 within the following year
• 2nd Halving (2016): Around $650 at halving → Reached $20,000 within about 18 months
• 3rd Halving (2020): Around $8,700 at halving → Reached $69,000 within about 18 months
• 4th Halving (2024): Around $64,000 at halving → Surpassed $100,000 afterwards

However, an important caveat is necessary here.

Correlation is not causation. The fact that price rose after each halving does not prove that "the halving caused the price increase." The sample size of four times is too small to draw statistically significant conclusions. Furthermore, halving is a pre-known event to all participants, so according to the efficient market hypothesis, it should already be reflected in the price.

Nevertheless, the supply-side logic is clear. All else being equal, if the daily Bitcoin inflow to the market is cut in half, prices must rise to meet equal demand. This is basic supply-and-demand economics.

The Value of Predictable Monetary Policy

The true significance of halving lies not in short-term price fluctuations, but in the concept of predictable monetary policy itself.

Austrian economics emphasizes that for economic actors to make rational plans, they need stable and predictable money. When an entrepreneur is planning for 10 years, if they cannot know how the money supply will change, uncertainty is added to all economic calculations.

Bitcoin's halving schedule removes this uncertainty. You can know exactly right now how much Bitcoin will be issued in 2030, 2050, and 2100. This is a level of monetary policy transparency that no currency in human history has ever provided.

This is where it connects with time preference. When people can know the future money supply with certainty, they can plan and save with longer time horizons. Predictable monetary policy enables low time preference, and low time preference is the foundation of capital accumulation and civilization development.

Connected Concepts

• Sound Money - Halving is the key mechanism that makes Bitcoin sound money
• Proof of Work - The technical foundation that forms Bitcoin's supply structure along with halving
• Time Preference - The impact of predictable monetary policy on time preference
• Fiat Money - The contrast concept where the meaning of halving becomes clearest

Read on the full site: https://learn.txid.uk/en/ideas/halving/